A.M. Control 3 mile tempo run with Jeff this morning at 6:00 AM. Ted had to go a bit earlier. The rough plan was - 1:19 quarters - good, 1:18 - better, 1:17 too good in the first mile, really good otherwise, 1:20 acceptable in the first mile, too slow otherwise. The significance of this run is that a 3 mile tempo has accurately predicted my marathon times in the past, and I had the data for this particular course for Ogden 2007 and Richmond 2003.
Warmed up 3.38 very easy. Started at the start of the Provo River 5 Mile Tempo by Geneva Road. Jeff and I alternated quarters, I took the first. 1:17 - 1:20 - 1:16 (0.5% down) - 1:17 (0.5% down), first mile in 5:10 - 1:18 - 1:20 (slowed down to not miss the turnaround, it was still dark) - 1:21 (recovering from 180 turn) - 1:20 (Jeff started losing it, I passed him 50 meters early and went for it), 5:19 on the second mile, 10:29 at 2 - Jeff fell back, now I was running alone - 1:19 (up 0.5%) - 1:19 (up 0.5 %, had to break because a dog jumped right under my feet, bad place too, right in the middle of the uphill) - 1:20 (got complacent) - 1:17 (felt good, but could not put together a kick). Last mile in 5:15, total time 15:44.3. Jeff was suffering from our Saturday run combined with the lack of sleep, so he was reduced to coasting through the last mile in 5:42 and finished in 16:12.
This predicts 2:28 in Ogden 2007 (including the heat), and 2:26 in Richmond 2003 assuming a crazy start. Reasoning - ran this in 16:12 before Ogden this year, 2:32:00 in Ogden, and 16:22 before Richmond 2003, 2:31:45 with the approach "qualify or die", first half in 1:12:12, second in 1:19:33, and those halves would be within a minute of each other run at the same effort.
Sasha science analysis for St. George - in the 3 mile run prior to Ogden I did enough VO2 Max workouts to have the ability to cheat in the 3 mile tempo. Ted paced me on the last mile, I hurt a lot, and ran it in 5:18. It was a true VO2 Max mile. Today I ran 5:15 on the last mile for two reasons - did not have anybody around to stir the pot, and could not get to a VO2 Max pace due to the lack of training at those speeds. That is OK, it is good to have a governor that would not let me go that hard in St. George, especially on Veyo. Prior to St. George 2006 I ran the standard downhill 3 mile tempo from Nunns to the mouth of the Provo Canyon in 15:35. This one tends to be about 35 seconds slower than that one. That would give me 15:10 on the Provo Canyon tempo, projecting it over the marathon, 3:38 faster than my finish time in St. George 2006, so 2:21:54. I have a trump card to pull out - higher mileage and a lot more Big Workouts this year, so I should be able to hold the threshold better through the marathon. That could come handy for getting the standard A, or in case something goes wrong, a bit of a cushion to still get standard B.
P.M. 0.5 with Julia in 5:05, then 1.5 with Benjamin, Jenny, and an empty single stroller in 13:49, then put Jenny in the stroller, last 0.5 with Benjamin in 3:32 (you can tell his horses were neighing the whole way through Jenny's run), that gave us 17:21 for 2 miles. Benjamin's soccer team lost for the first time this season 0-2. Benjamin's explanation of why - 75% of the opposing team were Hispanic, the rest were giants.
Taper time - I feel like I am driving through a construction zone, fines double, with a trooper following me.